Last week only 13 rigs were drilling hz. wells in the Eagle Ford, and the upcoming decline is likely to be severe.
EOG showed the largest absolute drop in output in April, among the major operators, while its well results have fallen since 2018
This article contains still images from the interactive dashboards available in the original blog post. To follow the instructions in this article, please use the interactive dashboards. Furthermore, they allow you to uncover other insights as well.
Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard
These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 24,696 horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford region, that have started producing from 2008 onward, through April 2020.
Oil production in the basin fell in April to 1.25 million bo/d, a m-o-m decline of 100 thousand bo/d. This drop was similar in size as experienced in August 2017 when Harvey hit the area. Based on preliminary data, I expect a steeper one in May.
Supply Projection dashboard
As of last week, only 13 rigs were drilling horizontal wells here, according to the Baker Hughes rig count. This is just a tenth of the number active in the Permian Basin (123) and 95% lower compared with May 2012 (267). If it holds at this level, and assuming no changes in rig or well productivity, then our projection sees output falling to close to 0.7 million b/d by the end of next year, as you can find in our Supply projection dashboard:
Eagle Ford oil projection through 2025 — based on the latest rig count and rig/well productivity
Well productivity hasn’t changed since 2017, on average. You can see this clearly in the “Well quality” tab, which contains the production profiles for all these wells, and select the 2017 vintage in the color legend.
The 10 largest operators in the basin are displayed in the final tab. EOG showed the largest absolute decline in April, although it still is the largest producer. Its well performance has deteriorated since 2018, as is shown in this screenshot from ShaleProfile Analytics (Professional):
Well performance of EOG in the Eagle Ford, since 2013
The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:
This “Ultimate recovery” overview reveals the relationship between production rates and cumulative production. Wells are grouped and averaged by the year in which production started.
Later this week we will have a post on gas production in Pennsylvania, which last week released data through May (already available in our subscription services).
Production and completion data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months.
For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources:
- Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending lease reports.
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