North Dakota oil production fell by 200 thousand bo/d in April to 1.2 million bo/d
The largest m-o-m decline to date. Another 50% decline is possible if drilling activity doesn’t increase from current levels
This article contains still images from the interactive dashboards available in the original blog post. To follow the instructions in this article, please use the interactive dashboards. Furthermore, they allow you to uncover other insights as well.
Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard
These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 15,995 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production from 2005 onward, through April.
North Dakota oil production fell by 200 thousand bo/d in April to 1.2 million bo/d, the largest m-o-m decline to date. This was of course all related to the disastrous oil price during the month (WTI at $16) and operators decided to shut in many wells. Still, 54 new wells came online during the month (vs. 108 in March), which simply shows the lag times involved in planning these operations.
Only 46% of these 16 thousand horizontal wells were in production for the full month, a percentage normally closer to 70%.
Supply Projection dashboard
With only 12 rigs drilling horizontal wells (according to the Baker Hughes rig count), our outlook for the state is not optimistic and production may drop by another 50% over time at this level, as you can easily find in our Supply Projection dashboard (select North Dakota in the state filter).
We recently gathered all the directional surveys for North Dakota and Colorado. These surveys allow us to show the exact position of the wellbore paths and improve our lateral length calculations. See here for example the 234 horizontal wells in the highly productive Antelope field in McKenzie County, with at least 2 years of production history. The map shows in the background the detailed well paths of these and neighboring wells.
Antelope field in McKenzie (from ShaleProfile Analytics)
These wells recovered on average almost 240 thousand barrels of oil in the first 2 years.
Texas is next on our list for these directional surveys! We also plan to include these in our ShaleProfile Data service shortly.
Continental Resources was the only major operator that decided to shut in many wells in April and its production dropped by 50 thousand bo/d (“Top operators”).
The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:
This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery. They are grouped by the year in which production started.
Early next week we plan a new post on the Permian. Our Supply Projection dashboard is updated every day, but especially on Friday when the new rig data becomes available.
For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources:
- DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 40 kbo/d) is produced from conventional vertical wells.
Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight: https://bit.ly/3dR8VOW
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