August tight oil production in the Permian was slightly below the year ago level, at almost 3.8 million b/d. We share our production forecast at current levels of drilling activity and a new productivity ranking by operator.
These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 28,483 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing from 2008/2009 onward, through August.
Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard
Tight oil production in the Permian was roughly flat in August, at close to 3.8 million bo/d (after upcoming revisions), probably slightly below the level a year earlier. Natural gas production set a new record at 15 Bcf/d (also after upcoming revisions; toggle Product to ‘Gas’ to see this).
The horizontal rig count here has increased in the past 3 months, to 145 as of last week (source Baker Hughes). Still, this level of activity would long-term only be able to support a tight oil output about 1 million bo/d lower than in August (2.8 million bo/d), as you can find in our Supply Projection dashboard by selecting this basin:
Tight oil outlook in the Permian, by state, based on current drilling activity & productivity
In the final tab (“Top operators”) the production and positions are displayed for the 10 largest producers in the Permian. Several of these companies are now involved in some kind of M&A transaction. At the current pace, Exxon Mobil is likely to make it to the top-3 in the coming months (ignoring upcoming M&A deals).
The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:
This “Ultimate recovery” overview displays the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started.
By extrapolating the recent vintages, you’ll note that they probably will end up with an ultimate recovery of close to 500 thousand barrels of oil, on average (ignoring extra stimulation measures).
The following screenshot, taken from ShaleProfile Analytics (Professional), shows the ranking of all Permian operators, based on the average 12-months cum. oil recovery.:
Productivity ranking of all oil producers in the Permian Basin with over 10 wells, based on the first 12-month cum. oil recovery. Hz. wells since 2016 only.
Of the major operators (100+ wells), Cimarex has the best results with 183 thousand barrels of oil in the first year, on average. All its wells included here are in the Delaware Basin.
We will have a new post on the Eagle Ford early next week.
Within ShaleProfile Analytics, we will start covering well permitting activity in the coming weeks. Check out more announcements on this topic in upcoming posts.
Production and completion data are subject to revisions.
Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations.
For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources:
- Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests, and oil production data.
- OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided.
Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight: https://bit.ly/3nCjWIl
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