The Haynesville natural gas output could almost double to over 20 Bcf/d in a couple of years, at current conditions.
We also reveal how well results have changed in the core counties, permit activity, and which operator is growing the fastest.
This article contains still images from the interactive dashboards available in the original blog post. To follow the instructions in this article, please use the interactive dashboards. Furthermore, they allow you to uncover other insights as well.
Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard
This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 6,183 horizontal wells in the Haynesville that started producing from 2007, through August.
Natural gas production in the Haynesville continues to set new heights and in August was about 12.2 Bcf/d (after upcoming revisions).
The horizontal rig count in the Haynesville has hovered at just below 50 since the start of the year, a far cry from the 150 rigs that were active here in 2011, but still close to the highest number in the past 9 years. We project more growth in natural gas output at these activity levels:
Natural gas outlook in the Haynesville, based on current drilling activity & productivity, by year of first production.
This image was taken from our Supply Projection dashboard. It reveals that on current trends, the basin could sustain over 20 Bcf/d of natural gas output in a couple of years, all else being equal.
Why is the basin suddenly able to grow so fast? The answer is in improving well results. Here we show how well productivity has improved in the top 6 counties in the Haynesville:
Well productivity over time, by county, measured in average cumulative gas production during the first year.
A well that came online in 2013 in De Soto recovered on average 1.9 Bcf of natural gas in the first year on production, while a well that began production last year recovered 5.2 Bcf in the same time frame. You can see that the improvements were similarly spectacular in the other 5 counties, with the notable exception of Caddo, where productivity has fallen since 2017 (despite that wells are frac’ed there with the highest proppant loadings, at close to 40 million pounds, as is visible in the bottom chart).
Although most production is still coming from De Soto Parish, Panola County in Texas is catching up fast. This year, already it counted the most approved permits for new horizontal drills:
In the final tab (“Top operators”), the leading 10 natural gas producers in this basin are listed. Indigo, the number 4 in this list, has just been acquired by Southwestern Energy. Rockcliff, the number 3, is showing the fastest growth among these operators. Its recent well results in Harrison and Panola are impressive:
Rockcliff in the Haynesville — well locations and results
The 40 horizontal wells it brought online last year recovered over 5 Bcf of natural gas during the first year on production.
Our next post will be on all covered US states, followed by an update on North Dakota, which just released production figures for October (already available in our subscription services).
Production data is subject to revisions.
For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources:
- The Louisiana Department of Natural Resources
- Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending lease reports.
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