US tight oil exited Q1 at the highest level this year (7.1 million b/d).
We project that output could soon start climbing again, with more rig additions and a depleting DUC count. Permit activity however was lower in Q2 than in the 2 quarters earlier
This article contains still images from the interactive dashboards available in the original blog post. To follow the instructions in this article, please use the interactive dashboards. Furthermore, they allow you to uncover other insights as well.
Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard
These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from 144,661 horizontal wells in 13 US states, through March. West Virginia is deselected in most dashboards, as it hasn’t reported Q1 production data yet.
March US tight oil production more than made up for the 1 million b/d loss in February, and at 7.1 million b/d was slightly higher than the January level. Natural gas production (excl. West Virginia) also recovered by 6 Bcf/d, and was at 73.6 Bcf/d just 3% below the historical peak in November 2019 (76.1 Bcf/d).
The horizontal rig count in the Lower 48 has climbed to 425 as of last week (according to Baker Hughes). At this level, and assuming no changes in drilling or well productivity, current output can be roughly maintained, as is visualized in our Supply Projection dashboard:
US tight oil outlook, by vintage, based on current drilling activity & well performance
The contribution from wells from each year is nicely visible here. Given that operators may reduce the DUC count in these months, and efficiencies may have slightly increased, this picture probably somewhat underestimates current and future production.
Despite rising oil & gas prices, permit activity is still close to the lowest level in the last decade:
Permit activity in 10 key US states, by quarter and permit status.
This image, taken from Permit Activity dashboard, reveals that in Q2 this year only 2,965 permits for new horizontal wells were approved in the 10 states shown on the map, which was even lower than in the 2 quarters earlier.
Obviously, most of these new permits(1,669) were approved in the Permian Basin:
Approved permits for horizontal wells in Q2 2021, by basin
EOG was with 333 newly approved permits in Q2, including 266 in the Permian, well above the rest.
The 10 largest tight oil operators are displayed in the final overview (“Top operators”). All these operators saw a significant boost in production in March. ConocoPhillips was only 20 thousand b/d below EOG, the number 1, despite operating 3.2 thousand fewer horizontal wells.
Yesterday we were happy to announce that HITE Hedge Asset Management choose ShaleProfile for all their data and analytics needs on US tight oil & gas: https://shaleprofile.com/press/shaleprofile_hite_hedge-asset-management/
If you want to have easy access to the most up-to-date production, completion and permit data, together with our own production forecasts on well level, check out our improved ShaleProfile Data service. This also includes a real-time data API for those who wish to automate everything.
Next week we will have a new post on North Dakota, which has just released May production data (already available in our subscription services). Texas also just released May production data for most wells.
Production data is subject to revisions.
For these presentations, we used data gathered from the sources listed below.
- Arkansas Oil & Gas Commission
- Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission
- Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar to Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories.
- Montana Board of Oil and Gas
- New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission
- North Dakota Department of Natural Resources
- Ohio Department of Natural Resources
- Oklahoma Corporation Commission — Oil & Gas Division
- Oklahoma Tax Commission
- Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
- Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data.
- Utah Division of Oil, Gas, and Mining
- Automated Geographic Reference Center of Utah.
- West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection
- West Virginia Geological & Economic Survey
- Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission
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