US tight oil recovered somewhat in June, after 2 months of precipitous drops, as some inactive wells were brought back online.
But the horizontal rig count has to at least double to sustain the current output level.
This article contains still images from the interactive dashboards available in the original blog post. To follow the instructions in this article, please use the interactive dashboards. Furthermore, they allow you to uncover other insights as well.
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These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from 137,776 horizontal wells in 13 US states, through June 2020. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 15.1 billion bbl and 172 Tcf of natural gas. I originally planned a post earlier this week on the Haynesville, but had to cancel that (though this basin is still included in the presentations shown here).
US tight oil production rebounded in June by about 0.4 million bo/d to 6.4 million bo/d, as operators brought some wells back online with the improved pricing environment. Natural gas output stayed flat at 73 Bcf/d. Based on preliminary data (available in our subscription services), the recovery continued in July, but a return to the November high (8.4 million bo/d) is still a long way off and would require a significant increase in activity.
Supply Projection dashboard
This can also be seen in our Supply Projection dashboard; last week there were 223 rigs drilling horizontal wells, according to the Baker Hughes rig count. At this level and assuming no changes in productivity, we project that tight oil production may decline to 5 million bo/d by the end of next year:
Tight oil outlook at current drilling activity and well/rig productivity
The 10 largest operators (based on the previous 12 months production) are listed in the last overview (“Top operators”). These operators responded very differently to the oil price crash; ConocoPhillips and Continental Resources shut in most of their production, while Pioneer and Concho hardly made any adjustments.
This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected and the wells are grouped by the year in which production started.
Early next week we will have a new post on North Dakota, which will release August production data in the coming days.
Production data is subject to revisions.
For these presentations, we used data gathered from the sources listed below.
- Arkansas Oil & Gas Commission
- Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission
- Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar to Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories.
- Montana Board of Oil and Gas
- New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission
- North Dakota Department of Natural Resources
- Ohio Department of Natural Resources
- Oklahoma Corporation Commission — Oil & Gas Division
- Oklahoma Tax Commission
- Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
- Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data.
- Utah Division of Oil, Gas, and Mining
- Automated Geographic Reference Center of Utah.
- West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection
- West Virginia Geological & Economic Survey
- Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission
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